It may come as a surprise in one of the world’s most competitive property markets, but apartment prices have declined in several Sydney suburbs over the past five years.
According to the latest Domain House Price Report, the median apartment price has fallen in 19 Sydney suburbs compared to five years ago. While Sydney’s overall median unit price stood at $844,390 in December, some pockets recorded notable declines — creating mixed opportunities for buyers and investors.
So what’s behind the shift, and what does it mean for today’s market?
Why Have Median Apartment Prices Fallen?
Property experts say there isn’t a single explanation. Instead, several factors have influenced median price movements across different suburbs:
1. Increased Apartment Supply
High-density suburbs with ongoing development have experienced price resets due to the steady flow of new stock.
Dr Nicola Powell, Domain’s Chief of Research and Economics, explains that in areas such as Sydney Olympic Park, a heavy pipeline of new apartments has consistently influenced pricing.
When more one-bedroom apartments enter the market, for example, they form a larger proportion of sales — naturally pulling the median price lower.
2. Changing Sales Mix
Median price movements don’t always reflect declining property values. In some suburbs:
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There has been a rise in lower-priced property sales
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Fewer high-end apartments have transacted
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Sales volumes have been low, causing the median to fluctuate
In smaller markets, this can make the median price behave unpredictably from year to year.
3. Investor Activity & Regulatory Changes
Suburbs with a strong investor presence — such as Blacktown and Kirribilli — are often more sensitive to economic or regulatory changes.
Adjustments to NSW tenancy laws, including the end of “no grounds” evictions and caps on rent increases, prompted some investors to sell smaller units. In Kirribilli, ageing apartment stock and upcoming capital works in older buildings also contributed to increased listings of studios and one-bedroom apartments.
Sydney Suburbs with Notable Price Declines
Here are some of the suburbs where median apartment prices fell over the past five years:
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Concord: -31.3%
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Kirribilli: -23.1%
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Lindfield: -13.2%
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Blacktown: -10.1%
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Sydney Olympic Park: -3.2%
Kirribilli remains the most expensive suburb on the list, with a median apartment price of $1.3 million, while Blacktown’s median sits at $448,500.
In Concord, the decline may reflect limited transaction volume. With a mix of modest apartments and high-end waterfront properties, the median can swing significantly depending on which properties sell in a given year.
Is a Falling Median a Red Flag?
Not necessarily.
Experts caution against interpreting median price declines as a sign of reduced desirability. Instead, buyers should look deeper into the reasons behind the data.
When to Be Cautious:
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If the suburb has been rezoned for significantly higher density
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If there is an ongoing influx of supply
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If high strata fees or special levies are looming
An oversupply of new apartments can place prolonged downward pressure on prices.
When It Could Signal Opportunity:
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If declines are driven by temporary market factors
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If there is strong long-term demand
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If the suburb offers lifestyle appeal and infrastructure connectivity
Kirribilli, for example, is already showing signs of stabilisation, with entry-level properties becoming harder to secure below $600,000 compared to a year ago.
What Buyers Should Focus On
Whether you’re a first-home buyer or investor, experts recommend focusing on fundamentals rather than trying to perfectly time the market.
Key factors to consider include:
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Natural light and ventilation
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Functional floorplans
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Reasonable strata fees
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No looming special levies
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Proximity to transport, village centres, and amenities
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Smaller boutique apartment blocks
For owner-occupiers especially, buying when it suits your personal circumstances is often more important than short-term price fluctuations.
The Bottom Line
Sydney’s property market remains diverse and highly segmented. While some suburbs have experienced median price declines over the past five years, the reasons vary significantly from one location to another.
For savvy buyers, these suburbs may present opportunities — but only with careful research and a clear understanding of supply, demand, and long-term fundamentals.
If you’re considering buying, selling, or investing in Sydney’s apartment market, understanding suburb-level data is critical.
Thinking about your next move? Contact RNJ Realty for tailored advice based on your goals and the latest market insights.
